The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Washington Commanders and the Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs with tickets to Super Bowl LIX on the line.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening line: PHI -5.5 (48.5)
Matchup Background
These two NFC East rivals split the series this season. The Eagles have better pass catchers, a better running back, a better offensive line, a better defensive line, and better defensive backs. Philadelphia might have had the superior linebackers when healthy, too. The Commanders will need an otherworldly Daniels to win.
Early X Factor
Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter. His ability to create interior havoc is critical for the defense. Including the playoffs, he has 6.5 sacks, 28 pressures, and 14 tackles for loss this season. Carter will need to disrupt the pocket and make impact plays to limit Daniels and the Washington offense.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Opening line: KC -1.5 (48.5)
Matchup Background
This will be the ninth meeting between quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. The Bills and Chiefs met in Week 11 this season; Buffalo earned the victory 30-21 in Kansas City's only loss this season with their starters. The Bills are seeking to be the third team since 2018 to beat the Chiefs twice in a season.
Why the Chiefs Will Win
They have individual players who can take over a game. Kelce, after a quiet regular season, showed he still has energy left in the tank when he racked up seven receptions for 117 yards against the Texans. Chris Jones had just 5.0 sacks in the regular season but delivered far more pass rush wins and pressures than any other defensive tackle. Mahomes can bring postseason magic at any moment.
Why the Bills Will Win
They're the better football team. Even entering Sunday, before beating the Ravens, FPI made the Bills 2.9 points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field. The Bills have the quarterback that has played much better this year. Allen ranked first in QBR this season while Mahomes ranked eighth.
